Capture Rates
What wind, solar and the Norwegian interconnectors actually earn versus the average power price
These pages show naive day-ahead capture rates: the volume-weighted price a technology earns (realized output × DAM price) as a share of the period's baseload price, computed from ENTSO-E data for the Nordic zones, Germany and the Netherlands, 2019–2025. A rate below 100% means the technology earns less than the average price — the cannibalization effect.
We deliberately stop at the market-aggregate, day-ahead number. The further gap between this and what a producer actually banks comes from forecast error settled in the imbalance market — and that is asset-specific and unobservable at market level (the imbalance market is reflexive: its prices are the aggregate forecast error). So there is no meaningful market-wide forecast-error capture rate; that belongs to a per-asset analysis.
Generation capture
Annual capture rate by technology — wind, solar, hydro, run-of-river and nuclear — per bidding zone (2019–2025).
View →Cannibalization
Capture rate vs renewable penetration across 14 zones — the value-erosion story.
View →Interconnectors
Norway's DC cables: congestion rent and the export/import timing premium.
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